Recently, according to the European Photovoltaic Association's "Global Solar Market Outlook 2025-2029" report, although Brazil continues to consolidate its position as a regional solar power powerhouse, especially in the field of distributed generation, its growth rate will slow down significantly in 2025, and new capacity is expected to increase slightly from 18.9GW in 2024 to 19.2GW.

The reason for the slowdown is mainly due to the adjustment of self-consumption policies and the delay of distributed generation grid connection, while transmission infrastructure restrictions are the main challenges facing large projects. It is worth looking forward to that the newly enacted energy storage regulations in 2025 are expected to further stimulate the development of the industry.

Combining Absolar's data with the official forecast of the Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE), by 2029, Brazil's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach between 90GW in the conservative scenario and 107.6GW in the optimistic scenario. Among them, distributed installed capacity is expected to be between 54.2GW and 63.9GW, while Absolar estimates that the annual new installed capacity of centralized power generation will remain between 3.7GW and 5.3GW before 2029.

Last year, Brazil's new solar installed capacity reached a record 18.9GW. However, after two consecutive years of explosive growth of 60%-81% in 2021-2022 and a 15% increase in 2023, the country has become the world's third largest solar photovoltaic market. The growth rate of 21% in 2024 is not enough to keep it in the top three, and it is now behind India (30.7GW), the United States (50GW) and China (329GW).

High electricity prices, abundant sunshine resources, a sound bidding mechanism and a favorable net metering policy are the key to the rapid development of Brazil's photovoltaic industry before 2024. Despite the macroeconomic challenges, the increase in import tariffs on photovoltaic modules in 2024, and the high rate of power abandonment, its market performance still far exceeded government expectations.